Free online course · 8 modules · 2.3 hours
The Change Equation
Complexity, Capability and Why Change Projects Fail
A self-paced course for senior managers, sponsors and project leaders who want to de-risk change and stop repeating the same expensive mistakes.
Peter Duschinsky · The Imaginist Company
The contention
Projects fail when the COMPLEXITY of the project exceeds the CAPABILITY of the organisation to cope.
What you will do
Eight modules, six case studies and two assessment tools
The course is drawn from the workshop and book of the same name, updated with current evidence and recent failures — TSB, Birmingham City Council, Post Office Horizon — alongside the classics that established the pattern. Work through it in order, or go straight to the tools.
- 01Why Change Projects Still FailThe success rate has barely moved in thirty yearsSet the baseline: what success and failure actually mean, what the evidence says, and why the reasons everybody already knows have not fixed the problem.15 min
- 02The Sociotechnical FrameTwo systems, one outcomeThe theoretical backbone: every work system has a social side and a technical side, and attending to one while ignoring the other reliably produces failure.12 min
- 03The Dimensions of ComplexityComplicated is knowable. Complex is not.What complexity actually means in organisational, project and information-systems terms, and why the distinction from 'complicated' changes how you manage.14 min
- 04Learning From FailureSix cases, one patternDetailed case studies from 1992 to the present day. Read them for the mechanism, not the schadenfreude: in every case a series of individually survivable problems combined.25 min
- 05Complexity Is ExponentialAnd human brains are wired for straight linesWhy conventional risk registers systematically underestimate complex change, and what the exponential nature of complexity means for how you plan.12 min
- 06Measuring ComplexityThree factors, one exponential scaleThe Exponential Complexity Tool: a simple, high-level indicator that tells you whether the complexity of your project has been judged correctly. Includes the interactive calculator.18 min · tool
- 07Measuring CapabilityCulture with process maturity built inThe other side of the equation. The pendulum, the nine-level management culture spiral with its Capability Maturity Model equivalents, and the Organisational Capability Indicator.20 min · tool
- 08The Capability / Complexity GapPutting the two halves togetherBring your two scores together, read the gap, and understand what it means for how change management should actually be done — before, during and after the project.20 min
Who it is for
Sponsors and boards
Replace assurance with evidence, and learn the one number worth arguing about before you sign.
Programme and change leads
A defensible way to argue for phasing, standardisation and a longer runway.
Transformation teams
A shared language for complexity, capability and the gap between them.